Your Team’s Prospects Are Probably Not Going to Work Out

Serious prospect hounds know that only about 10% of minor leaguers ever participate in a Major League game in their career. However, even the most discerning fans can be deluded into believing that their team’s farm system can overcome the odds and build a perennial contender based on their farm system alone. I decided toContinue reading “Your Team’s Prospects Are Probably Not Going to Work Out”

An Examination of Rebuilding Team Timelines

Rebuilding has become the popular way for MLB franchises to build a perennial World Series contender. With the league’s structure of compensating the worst teams with the best draft picks, it seems like a viable strategy to maximize your losses in order to obtain the services of the best amateur talent available. The Astros andContinue reading “An Examination of Rebuilding Team Timelines”

Is Consistent Contact More Important than Raw Power?

There are many types of hitters that have had success in baseball history. There are hitters with light-tower power like Giancarlo Stanton and players with exceptional bat control like Tony Gwynn or Ichiro Suzuki. Not many people can hit the ball as hard as Giancarlo Stanton, so many coaches and advisors instruct their players toContinue reading “Is Consistent Contact More Important than Raw Power?”

Using Bayesian Models to Predict MLB Free Agent Salaries

Executive Summary I created a linear regression model to predict how much salary a Major League player will make in free agency. This model will help determine which free agents are affordable and fit into the team’s yearly budget. I used a player’s WAR values from the previous three seasons, All-Star and MVP status, position,Continue reading “Using Bayesian Models to Predict MLB Free Agent Salaries”

How Much Value is Really in the Farm System?

Everyone knows that a strong farm system is the key to the long-term success of a Major League organization. What team would not want all-star players at below market rates? These players make it possible for organizations to field competitive teams and stay beneath the luxury tax threshold, but how much value can an organizationContinue reading “How Much Value is Really in the Farm System?”

Analyzing the Draft

Ever since the Major League Draft was created in 1965, teams have been searching for any competitive edge possible to separate themselves from the rest of the league. It is after all one of the best ways to acquire young affordable talent for your organization. Not picking the best player available is a huge missedContinue reading “Analyzing the Draft”

An Analysis of Minor League Development Paths

For years, Major League Baseball organizations and their fans have focused on their prospects. They wonder who will make it to the Majors, how productive they will be and when they can be expected to contribute at the Major League level. I attempted to answer these questions by looking at drafted players from prior yearsContinue reading “An Analysis of Minor League Development Paths”